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There's a storm in my teacup!

Well, in my dollar store mug.

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Work irks.
The one thing that annoys me most when I work is when I have to deal with people who come in solely to waste my time. There are a fair few of them - a few mobs of troublemakers.

On the grand scale of things, they're harmless, but they're persistently annoying and every time you see them you can expect mocking comments until they know they've annoyed you or until they get bored. Is it a bad thing that I just act grumpy and annoyed by them immediately, so they stop sooner?

Puyo Pop Fever to try tomorrow, if that's good I'll nab it. I've got £12.50 in Game vouchers to use up, or I can get it from my shop if it arrives tomorrow with £8 off, and the £12.50 safe for whenever something else appears. Though if I dislike the game, it is easier to return it to Game.

A trip has been arranged - I plan to visit Shaz next Sunday 7th, and arrive back on Tuesday 9th. She's not been feeling too grand recently, a visit will hopefully cheer her up.

Sleep now. And the Monty Hall Problem.

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Heh, I remember your posing this question in high school as well. Although, looking back I don't think I realized that "They'll only consider what they'll make next round" could be a reason for illogical reasoning. Especially if they thought farther ahead and also considered whether they would survive or not. Just saying. Asummably even pirates have a motive for self-preservation.

Also, about the whole BBB thing. . .is this assuming the person doesn't know the trick to reading the colors? In reality, the way the probabilities work out is really the only reason the mini-game exists. And because its so damn amusing.

Actually, Ian W. posted the pirate problem. I think I was the first to solve it, which is probably why I still remember it. As for "They'll only consider what they'll make next round," I think you have to include that, otherwise you enter into a "prisoners' dilemma" situation.

No, actually, I just worked it out, and I can definitively state that it doesn't matter whether the pirate compare their share this round to their share next round or whether they compare it to their predicted best share. Depending on which one you choose, the logic is ever-so-slightly different, but not much. In the end, the solution is the same. The "trying to get best possible amount" idea makes for a more realistic and more interesting "moral," I think.

So, just to make it clear -- the pirates have to be able to THINK as far ahead as need be. However, whether they consider the next round or their best round in comparison to the current round is irrelevant to the logical solution. If you can figure out why this is true, you might be a little closer to solving it for yourself.

As for the BBB problem:
A) Even if the BBB game wasn't weighted the way it is, it wouldn't really matter. Let's the first person has a 50% chance of winning -- as long as the line order is random each time, enough trials should make any particular player come out even.

B) Even knowing the solution is, it still doesn't seem that way intuitively. We've played a lot of pirate, and we never go up on that stage saying, "Well, here goes my (x-1)/x chance of survival." It's tense!

C) There is no trick to "reading the colors," you're just saying that to drive me INSANE LBAHRAGGL

Just to make it blindingly clear (which, really, doesn't sound very clear at all) -- each pirate will strive for an optimum solution. Even if a pirate foresees himself getting 100% if the first eight leaders are executed, if he also recognizes that at least one of the first eight leaders will get 50% of the vote, then that pirate won't just try to kill his way to top in the already-established-as-hopeless case that he might get 100%.

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